I agree 100% the PGM prices will make a record spike in value within the next 12-24months .. I avoid the likes of South Africa as they are becoming a basket case having to now import fresh water .. POD on the ASX is a great PGM investment location WA Australia large PGM Reef like SA miners have been mining for decades.. present resource 6Moz PGM5 to 250m deep but they are hit the same high grade PGM reef 500m deep and studies show it should well run to 2km deep so potentially 24Moz PGM5 + Cu +Au … worth less than $10mill USD !!!!!!
1) I thought platinum is used for diesel, palladium for gasoline, though that can be changed if you retool.
2) I haven't been able to find a recent cost curve for platinum/palladium. Where do you get that the current platinum price of $900+ is below production cost?
4) Theres a big "South Africa" risk when buying producers. An ETF holding the metal is a much safer way to invest (and it'll go up if SA cant keep the lights on....google for SA's electricity probems).
Hi, regarding your question on the cost curve, the source is the Worl Platinum Investment Council. The report is from December 2023 and this is a paragraph from it:
“The PGM basket price has declined by ~40% during 2023, leading to lower
profitability across the PGM miners. The extent to which prices have fallen
raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of several operations.
Based on published FY ’22 mining costs, WPIC estimates around 25% of PGM
mine production is generating negative cash margins at the current spot
basket price of around US$1,250 per 6E oz.”
Yes, I have the same thoughts regarding SA, which I also wrote in the conclusion of the article. Therefore a combination of longs on the major miners & an PGM ETF should work out fine over the coming months/years, even if SA collapses.
OK, sure, but charts 2 and 3 illustrate that electric sales have actually far exceeded the projections you make fun of for being too optimistic in chart 1!
Chart 2 shows a projection into the future, that is highly unrealistic (I discussed why in the article). Also I agree that EVs had a good run. But what we are seeing is, that we are hitting a point at which growth is slowing down. Based on this, the projections by WallStreet won’t work out. The thing I want to highlight is, that ICEs aren’t dead. Even if EVs grow further (lower growth rate), PGM demand will not crash, as predicted by WallStreet.
I agree 100% the PGM prices will make a record spike in value within the next 12-24months .. I avoid the likes of South Africa as they are becoming a basket case having to now import fresh water .. POD on the ASX is a great PGM investment location WA Australia large PGM Reef like SA miners have been mining for decades.. present resource 6Moz PGM5 to 250m deep but they are hit the same high grade PGM reef 500m deep and studies show it should well run to 2km deep so potentially 24Moz PGM5 + Cu +Au … worth less than $10mill USD !!!!!!
Very interesting. Thanks. I will have a look 👀
Nice, I was halfway through PGPs.
1) I thought platinum is used for diesel, palladium for gasoline, though that can be changed if you retool.
2) I haven't been able to find a recent cost curve for platinum/palladium. Where do you get that the current platinum price of $900+ is below production cost?
3) Newer ICE cars automatically stop/start their engines at traffic lights, but I don't know if this uses PGPs as a catalyst. https://www.autoevolution.com/news/the-engine-start-stop-systems-conspiracy-108734.html
4) Theres a big "South Africa" risk when buying producers. An ETF holding the metal is a much safer way to invest (and it'll go up if SA cant keep the lights on....google for SA's electricity probems).
Hi, regarding your question on the cost curve, the source is the Worl Platinum Investment Council. The report is from December 2023 and this is a paragraph from it:
“The PGM basket price has declined by ~40% during 2023, leading to lower
profitability across the PGM miners. The extent to which prices have fallen
raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of several operations.
Based on published FY ’22 mining costs, WPIC estimates around 25% of PGM
mine production is generating negative cash margins at the current spot
basket price of around US$1,250 per 6E oz.”
Yes, I have the same thoughts regarding SA, which I also wrote in the conclusion of the article. Therefore a combination of longs on the major miners & an PGM ETF should work out fine over the coming months/years, even if SA collapses.
OK, sure, but charts 2 and 3 illustrate that electric sales have actually far exceeded the projections you make fun of for being too optimistic in chart 1!
Chart 2 shows a projection into the future, that is highly unrealistic (I discussed why in the article). Also I agree that EVs had a good run. But what we are seeing is, that we are hitting a point at which growth is slowing down. Based on this, the projections by WallStreet won’t work out. The thing I want to highlight is, that ICEs aren’t dead. Even if EVs grow further (lower growth rate), PGM demand will not crash, as predicted by WallStreet.
Fair!
Money ... whAle ?