Nice write up. Agree, number of Polish stocks far too cheap to resist at present, in particular Orlen and JSW.
Though Orlen is a somewhat different beast with less upstream and more downstream operations than say other SOE's like PBR or CNOOC, the current value multiple is severely below what it should be. SOE's are often a good place to find value when the market gets overly pessimistic on them.
Thanks for sharing your idea! Interesting view from you see this as a quasi monopoly while common sense will tell stay away from goverment companies. Now they bought Polska press 😳 capital allocation? To get the downside rigth with those cyclicals is quite hard. They always look cheap before thinks get ugly. It´s hard landings versus oil supply deficit. Wouldn´t it be a more conservative approach to anker to 2019 numbers?
Thank you for the article, I enjoyed it. Im going to continue to research Orlen. I would be interested to read your breakdown or thoughts on the other company you mentioned also, Petrobras.
how sustainable is that 35 billion 2022 act/64 billion forecasted earnings? apparently at least 8 out of 35 billion was once-off merger impacts + there must be a ton of ukraine war/peak business cycle impact.....
Nice write up. Agree, number of Polish stocks far too cheap to resist at present, in particular Orlen and JSW.
Though Orlen is a somewhat different beast with less upstream and more downstream operations than say other SOE's like PBR or CNOOC, the current value multiple is severely below what it should be. SOE's are often a good place to find value when the market gets overly pessimistic on them.
Sorry if I missed this, but just to be clear, do they have E&P operations? And if yes, where are their reserves?
Thanks for sharing your idea! Interesting view from you see this as a quasi monopoly while common sense will tell stay away from goverment companies. Now they bought Polska press 😳 capital allocation? To get the downside rigth with those cyclicals is quite hard. They always look cheap before thinks get ugly. It´s hard landings versus oil supply deficit. Wouldn´t it be a more conservative approach to anker to 2019 numbers?
I saw a recent Financial Times headline about the stock and did a short tear sheet thread about it the other day: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/pkn-orlen-russian-oil-sanctions-bite-27m-a-day/comments
I will add a link to your lengthier piece in the comments section...
Thank you for the article, I enjoyed it. Im going to continue to research Orlen. I would be interested to read your breakdown or thoughts on the other company you mentioned also, Petrobras.
where does the profit comes from and what are the operational perspectives? its kinda missing.
how sustainable is that 35 billion 2022 act/64 billion forecasted earnings? apparently at least 8 out of 35 billion was once-off merger impacts + there must be a ton of ukraine war/peak business cycle impact.....