Tons of commercial activities are done as undeclared payment (no taxes-under govt radar). That's why construction have this strength relating the GDP. Also everybody is paid with the minimum wage( the difference has no government take)
Youth unemployment is among people that have college titullations with aspirations of very good jobs. Savings in china are huge, so they can afford it.
Just see oil consumption in china, up YoY. And this is white one of biggest EV fleets on the world.
Youth unemployment is heading over 20% and China stopped disclosing the figure. If you look at the GDP contribution of China, you will find that majority comes from real estate and infrastructure construction. Quoting the GDP number is easy but you need to take everything into the context. The hiring freeze is real in China. I am saying this as a Chinese national.
Night is the darkest before the dawn :-) everything looks like a strong contrarian case; I just limit my positions because of the real geopolitical risk.
Tons of commercial activities are done as undeclared payment (no taxes-under govt radar). That's why construction have this strength relating the GDP. Also everybody is paid with the minimum wage( the difference has no government take)
Youth unemployment is among people that have college titullations with aspirations of very good jobs. Savings in china are huge, so they can afford it.
Just see oil consumption in china, up YoY. And this is white one of biggest EV fleets on the world.
Long china
That’s basically my thesis. It’s important to note that China has always been able to innovate itself into a position of strength. Think about it:
China had no nuclear bombs — They build it themselves
China had no access to GPS because the US refused so — They build there owns system that is even more advanced
China wasn’t allowed to participate in the International Space Station — So they build one themselves
In a few years China will dominate the global chip industry
Youth unemployment is heading over 20% and China stopped disclosing the figure. If you look at the GDP contribution of China, you will find that majority comes from real estate and infrastructure construction. Quoting the GDP number is easy but you need to take everything into the context. The hiring freeze is real in China. I am saying this as a Chinese national.
Night is the darkest before the dawn :-) everything looks like a strong contrarian case; I just limit my positions because of the real geopolitical risk.
Hey contrarian how have BABA and JD been?
My thoughts on this are follows:
1) This is not only in China the case. In a lot of countries there is a problem if you look into the future (youth, etc.)
2) I like to do the opposite of what the crowd does. And if you look, then sentiment for Chinese equities is horrible.
Best regards
How is this contrarian play going? I thought China is all good and kicking?
Still holding, peak pessimism. Let’s look back at the end of the year.